Wednesday, November 09, 2016

The obligatory "Holy crap, was I wrong" post

To recap my Election Day predictions from Tuesday:

MN Senate: I felt the MN GOP would fall just short of regaining a majority. And with Minority Leader David Hann losing and Dave Thompson's former seat in SD58 flipping DFL, it appeared as though I would (unfortunately) be right. Amazingly, the GOP flipped 8 DFL seats (including CD3 candidate Terri Bonoff's in SD44) to attain a 34-33 majority!!!! Since Republican Paul Anderson won SD44 by a mere 200 votes, that looks to go to a recount. But, for now, I'm glad to have been wrong!

MN House: I had an inkling that the GOP would keep a majority (they had a 73-61 edge going into Tuesday) but it would be close. Not only did MN Republicans retain the House but they increased their membership to 76 representatives. With House District 32B going to a special election in early 2017, the GOP will be up to 77 reps once our friend Anne Neu emerges victorious!

MN Congressional Delegation: As I predicted, Democrat incumbents won reelection in Congressional Districts One (albeit by 0.76%), Four, Five and Seven. I also correctly called GOP incumbents holding CDs Three and Six.

That means I missed CDs Two (Republican Jason Lewis defeated Dem Angie Craig in an open seat) and Eight (Incumbent Dem Rick Nolan once again withstood a serious challenge from Stewart Mills, this time winning by a minuscule 0.56%).

US House: As predicted, Republicans kept a healthy majority.

US Senate: The GOP had a 54-46 majority. I called three Dem pickups, leaving the Republicans with a 51-49 lead. Turns out the Dems got only two: Illinois (which I predicted) and New Hampshire (I thought incumbent Kelly Ayotte would win). I didn't believe Republicans Ron Johnson (WI) and Pat Toomey (PA) would be reelected. I'm thrilled to have been wrong there.

The final tally is 52-48, GOP.

President of the United States: I have doubted Donald Trump since the millisecond he entered the race in the summer of 2015.

Many of my sentiments included the following:

  • No way Trump lasts past Christmas.
  • No way he survives after his constant diarrhea of the mouth. 
  • He won't have a majority of delegates going into the Republican National Convention in July. 
  • He'll lose a contested convention. 
  • OK, Trump's the GOP nominee but his inability to appeal to a more diverse electorate will sink him in the general. 
  • Trump's not only going to get thumped by Hillary Clinton but he may well cost the GOP the Senate majority, possibly the House. His candidacy could be an Extinction Level Event for the Republicans. 

Yep. I was wrong. Not only did Trump win "bigly" on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning but his victory seemed to be a boost to Senators Johnson, Toomey and Richard Burr (NC). He also won typically blue states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and may well have prevailed in Michigan.

Despite all that has been thrown at Trump over the past 16 months, he has weathered every proverbial storm. I can't say I'm all that enthused at the prospects of a Trump presidency, but for one to doubt him succeeding is to do so at one's own peril.


No comments: