Houston Texans (+9-1/2) at Baltimore Ravens: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has had the most impressive rookie season for a QB maybe in my lifetime. Clearly them losing out on the #1 overall draft pick last year was a blessing in disguise as Stroud appears to be miles ahead of fellow rookie QB (and top draft pick in 2023) Bryce Young.
Stroud has his work cut out for him this game as he attempts to best a Ravens defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL during the regular season. On the offensive side of the ball for Baltimore, QB Lamar Jackson has put forth another MVP caliber season. However, when he won the award in 2019, his 14-2 Ravens squad went one and done in the postseason. No doubt he's feeling his club has a bit of "unfinished business" to tend to.
Baltimore 27 Houston 17
Green Bay Packers (+9-1/2) at San Francisco 49ers: The Pack's thorough domination of the Dallas Cowboys last week was as impressive as it was shocking. Given they possess the youngest roster to appear in the NFL postseason in about 50 years, this was supposed to be a transitional year. However, their performances over the past month would suggest they're set up well for the long haul. And how charmed is this Packers franchise when for 30+ consecutive seasons they've had exactly zero doubt as to whom their quarterback will be to start the year (and have felt good about it)? Jordan Love definitely had the raw ability, but his poise has defied expectations.
All that being said, beating a 12-5 Cowboys team will give you a sugar high. But you better be able to handle a substantive meal in the form of a 12-5 49ers squad. While Jerry World AT&T Stadium has essentially been "Lambeau South" for the Pack, facing the Niners in the playoffs has been Green Bay's personal kryptonite. Since 2012, San Francisco has gone 4-0 vs. the Packers in the postseason. But it won't be past performances which will spell doom for GB this game, rather it will be 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey running roughshod over a (to be charitable) substandard Packers run defense.
San Francisco 31 Green Bay 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6-1/2) at Detroit Lions: When I think of these two teams, I envision the also rans of the old NFC Central division of the 1980s. Any chance the Bucs can don the Creamsicle colored uniform with the Buccaneer Bruce logo on the side of their helmets?
Anyhow, let's check out a deep cut from this ol' "rivalry."
While the Bucs actually broke though and won two Super Bowls since that era, the Lions made only occasional postseason appearances. However, Detroit's win at home last week against the Los Angeles Rams has energized this Lions fan base in a way I haven't seen since a fan was artfully dodging Ford Field security when parading around a "Fire Millen" sign.
The Lions actually have a legit home field advantage now, and I believe that will be the difference this game.
Detroit 27 Tampa Bay 21
Kansas City Chiefs (+2-1/2) at Buffalo Bills: For the first time since he became the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018, Patrick Mahomes will be participating in a road playoff contest. Mahomes has also never been ousted from the postseason before the AFC title game.
After having their legitimate Super Bowl aspirations dashed by KC in 2 of the 3 previous playoff cycles, the Bills finally get KC in their house. This game is also a rematch of the bizarre Week 14 regular season matchup when the Chiefs appeared to have scored a game-winning touchdown late only to have it nullified by an offensive offsides.
The Bills have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL of late, winning their final 5 regular season games as well as Monday's playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, KC's offense against Miami last weekend started to resemble the high powered unit which earned them two Super Bowl titles in the Mahomes era.
The 2021 divisional round matchup between these two clubs is still talked about as one of the most exhilarating postseason games ever, with the Chiefs prevailing 42-36 in overtime. Trailing 36-33 with 13 seconds remaining in regulation and starting at their own 25-yard line, KC gained 44 yards in two plays to set up a game-tying field goal. They then won the overtime coin toss and drove the length of the field for a game-winning TD. If you recall, that was when OT rules dictated that each team should have one chance to possess the ball unless the team with the initial possession scores a touchdown. As such, Buffalo never saw the ball in overtime.
I believe Kansas City will win this game, and I hope it occurs in this manner:
WHAT IF:
— Josh Chavis (@JoshChavis65) January 16, 2024
The Chiefs and Bills game goes to overtime, the Bills score a TD on their first possession, but because the Bills petitioned for a new rule where both teams possess the ball in overtime, the Chiefs get the ball, score, and win the game with a 2 pt conversion.
Poetry.
I'm rollin' with it!
Kansas City 32 Buffalo 31
My 2023 postseason record:
Against the spread: 4-2
Straight up: 3-3
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