Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at Baltimore Ravens: With all due respect to the NFC matchup, I believe this game is essentially the Super Bowl. I firmly believe whomever emerges victorious here will win it all.
I said going into the postseason that if the Chiefs can show us a semblance of the potent offense that has won them two Super Bowls over the previous four seasons, the reigning champs should be the favorite to defend their title. And while KC appears to have "flipped the switch" offensively their first two playoff games, they were facing injury-riddled defenses against Miami and Buffalo. But in this game, the Chiefs draw a relatively healthy Ravens unit which was #1 in scoring defense during the regular season.
After last week's decimation of the Houston Texans, the Ravens were oddly celebratory in the locker room over a win in the divisional playoffs. That doesn't seem befitting of a #1 seed who supposedly is the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Perhaps it was an expression of relief given they were in this same position four years ago only to go "one and done." Whatever the case, the Ravens will look to pound their league leading run game in an effort to keep Patrick Mahomes & Co. off the field. However, the Bills attempted that strategy last week against KC, but to no avail.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson can quiet what remains of his doubters if he can lead his club to a Super Bowl berth. Alas, I just can't bring myself to pick against the defending Super Bowl champs who seem to be playing with the proverbial chip on their shoulder.
Kansas City 24 Baltimore 23
Detroit Lions (+7-1/2) at San Francisco 49ers: The history of success among these two franchises is nearly polar opposite. This is only the second conference championship game in 65 years for the Lions, whereas the Niners are in their third consecutive title game and nineteenth overall. While Detroit is one of four NFL franchises to never appear in a Super Bowl, San Francisco is looking to make its eighth trip to the big game with a win this week.
If this game were in Ford Field, I would pick the Lions to advance to the Super Bowl with no hesitation (Imagine reading that statement just two years ago). The key this game is what will the 49ers get from dynamic WR Deebo Samuel? He left last week's divisional playoff game against Green Bay quite early on due to a shoulder injury. As such, San Francisco looked lost offensively until that final drive resulting in a game-winning touchdown. However, WR Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle (both of whom amassed 1,000+ yards receiving during the regular season) should be more than sufficient against a porous Lions pass defense.
Did Green Bay RB Aaron Jones reveal a weakness in what was one of the top run defenses in the NFL? Jones had north of 100 yards rushing (and a whopping 6 yards per carry) against the Niners last week, something that hadn't been done against that defense in nearly three years. Can Lions' rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs handle a significant workload? Regardless, the key to this matchup is how often QB Jared Goff can get the ball to star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. If that duo keeps rollin' like they have all season, this game is gonna be close.
I believe home field will be the difference in this one.
San Francisco 28 Detroit 20
My 2023 postseason record:
Against the spread: 6-4
Straight up: 7-3
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