Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Kansas City Chiefs: The Jags played in perhaps the most riveting game of wildcard weekend, rallying from 27-0 down to the L.A. Chargers to win 31-30 on a walk off field goal. The 2022 regular season was only the second time in the past fifteen years where they've had a winning record. Jacksonville looks to have gotten it right at quarterback with Trevor Lawrence and head coach Doug Pederson, so it won't take another decade-plus to amass multiple winning seasons.
Prior to drafting QB Patrick Mahomes in 2017, the Chiefs had not won a home playoff game since the 1993 season when Joe Montana was their quarterback. Since Mahomes became the full-time starter prior to the 2018 season, KC has never been eliminated before the AFC Championship game. While Lawrence has the potential to be an elite quarterback, he'll have to work hard to wrest the "Best QB in the NFL" title from the 27-year old Mahomes. I believe the Jags can hang for a while but KC will emerge victorious.
Kansas City 31 Jacksonville 20
New York Giants (+7-1/2) at Philadelphia Eagles: The Giants went from 4-13 in 2021 to 9-7-1 this regular season due to one major move: hiring Brian Daboll as their head coach. It also helped that oft injured stud running back Saquon Barkley was available for 16 games as he amassed 1,650 total yards from scrimmage. While quarterback Daniel Jones hardly set the world on fire in terms of passing yardage (3,205) and TD passes (15), he only threw five INTs in 16 starts.
The Eagles were rolling along in 2022, winning 13 of their first 14 games only to lose QB Jalen Hurts to a shoulder injury. Philly lost the next two games without Hurts but won the regular season finale against the Giants to maintain the top seed in the NFC. Despite NY resting a lot of its starters, the Eagles struggled to put them away due in large part to Hurts' rustiness. This game will be only the second contest in which Hurts has played over a 5-week span. Will he be able to shake the rust? It won't be pretty but I believe the Eagles get it done.
Philadelphia 27 New York 21
Cincinnati Bengals (+5-1/2) at Buffalo Bills: The defending AFC champion Bengals actually improved upon their 2021 record with a 12-4 season in '22, including winning their final 8 regular season contests. Despite possessing a top 10 offense, Cincy won their wildcard game on the strength of a huge defensive play as DE Sam Hubbard returned a fumble 98 yards for a touchdown to break a 17-17 tie against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Bills barely squeaked by a severely depleted Miami Dolphins team last week with a 34-31 win. If Buffalo has three turnovers this game like they did last week, the Bengals definitely won't let them off the hook.
This is a rematch of the Week 17 game where Bills safety Demar Hamlin collapsed to the turf after a seemingly benign hit on WR Tee Higgins. Given the traumatizing incident where Hamlin's heart stopped for a brief period, the game was postponed then ultimately canceled. No doubt these teams seeing each other again will be quite an emotional event. I don't really have a good feel for this game so I'll just go with the home club.
Buffalo 30 Cincinnati 27
Dallas Cowboys (+4) at San Francisco 49ers: I'll be the first to admit how I woefully underestimated Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ahead of last week's playoff game in Tampa. Prescott played his best game of the season in Dallas's drubbing of the Buccaneers. Their reward is playing the hottest team in the NFL.
The 49ers have won 11 consecutive games (including last week's postseason win over the Seattle Seahawks), with the past six featuring rookie QB Brock Purdy under center. Anybody else think Purdy is giving off a vibe of Tom Brady circa 2001? If you recall, Brady came in for injured starting QB Drew Bledsoe that year and led the New England Patriots to a Super Bowl championship in what was his first full season as a starter. Purdy's going to have to contend with Dallas's tough pass defense though, including beastly linebacker Micah Parsons (13.5 sacks in 2022). It would behoove the Niners to pound RB Christian McCaffrey against the 22nd ranked rush defense.
Honestly it's so hard to get a gauge on how Prescott will perform. He's been so up and down this season, sometimes showing that inconsistency in a single game. I have a hard time seeing him put up good numbers against this top ranked 49ers defense. I guess the only question remaining is if Purdy can keep the magic going for SF.
San Francisco 24 Dallas 17
My 2022 postseason record:
Against the spread: 4-2
Straight up: 5-1
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