San Francisco 49ers (+2-1/2) at Philadelphia Eagles: I know that high powered offenses are the thing in today's NFL, but I certainly don't object to a good ol' defensive struggle now and then. Given the Niners and Eagles are the top two defenses, respectively, in terms of yards allowed, we may well get that in this game.
San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy continues his unbeaten streak as he's now won his first seven NFL starts, including the 49ers' two playoff games. However, this will be by far his biggest test of his young career as his only two road starts (at Seattle and at Las Vegas) won't be nearly as intimidating as a Philly home crowd.
Whatever struggles the Eagles had over their final three regular season games, there was no sign of them in their 38-7 beatdown of the New York Giants last week. The Eagles piled up 268 yards rushing in that win, but it'll be a tall order to approach that domination given the 49ers' defense allows a paltry 3.4 yards per carry. Yes, QB Jalen Hurts will have to be the guy like he was so often throughout the regular season.
I love Purdy's story and have said before how it closely resembles Tom Brady's 2001 run to a championship. Unfortunately, Cinderella will turn into a pumpkin this game.
Philadelphia 20 San Francisco 13
Cincinnati Bengals (+1-1/2) at Kansas City Chiefs: These teams have faced each other three times over the past 13 months (including last year's AFC Championship Game) with the Bengals emerging victorious in all three contests.
While the Bengals were impressive in their thorough domination of the Buffalo Bills on the road last week, the Chiefs limped to a 27-20 home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half last week, yet he returned in the second half and actually made some plays. However, such an injury typically requires multiple weeks to recover, yet Mahomes will start this game.
I'm hard pressed to recall a defending conference champion that had been as underestimated as the Bengals....until last week. Their decimation of the Bills in Buffalo showed their run to the Super Bowl last year was not lightning in a bottle. Thanks to QB Joe Burrow et al, this team is built for the long haul. While the Bengals are once again thin on the offensive line, they somehow soldier on. It's hard to see Burrow take so many hits, but the one silver lining is he doesn't turn the ball over a lot.
Typically the home team gets 3 points, so the Chiefs being only a 1-1/2 point pick despite being the top AFC seed tells you oddsmakers don't really trust Mahomes' bum ankle. To be honest, I don't either.
Cincinnati 24 Kansas City 23
Against the spread: 6-4
Straight up: 8-2
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