The true motivation

If you were to ask leftists why they oppose mass deportations of illegal aliens, you're likely to hear a variation of the following:  

• No human being is illegal. 
• What right does America have to remove people from "stolen land?"
• For many, this is the only home they've ever known. 

I would guess that there is a small percentage of progs who truly believe one if not all of those sentiments, misguided as though they may be. However, it's more likely that a significant number of leftists don't view illegals so much as cherished human beings as they do pawns to prevent Democrats from being the minority party for the foreseeable future. 

Exhibit A: 

🚨2030 Apportionment Forecast🚨
+4: TX
+2: FL
+1: AZ, GA, ID, NC, UT

-4: CA
-1: IL, MN, NY, OR, PA, RI, WI

* Based on the 2025 Census Population Estimates released January 27, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ugZPVCs6zw

— The American Redistricting Project (@AmerRedistrict) January 27, 2026

Yes, while illegals aren't eligible to vote in American elections (though no doubt some are skirting the law to do so), the census isn't based on the number of legal citizens, but rather actual human beings residing in a state at census time. And population growth year over year looks to be declining due in no small part to mass deportations, much of which is occurring in the bluest of blue cities in blue states. 

As such, Dan McLaughlin of National Review paints a rather sobering picture for team blue. 

How bad is this news for Democrats? Let’s break this out by reference to the last few presidential cycles:

• Red states that Donald Trump won by six or more points in 2024, which voted for Trump in 2020 and 2016 and have all-Republican senators and governors: +8 seats.
• Purple-red states that Trump won by two to six points in 2024, all of which have Republican state legislatures: +3 seats. (Of these: Arizona and Georgia voted for Biden in 2020, North Carolina and Arizona have Democratic governors, and Arizona and Georgia each have two Democratic senators.)
• Purple-blue states that Trump won by less than two points in 2024, Biden won in 2020, and that have Democratic governors and one senator from each party: –2 seats.
• A blue state (Minnesota) that Kamala Harris won by less than six points in 2024: –1 seat.
• Deep-blue states that Harris won by six or more points in 2024: –8 seats, with half of the loss in California.

In a future presidential election where the Sun Belt battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona go red while the Rust Belt battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan (plus Minnesota) go blue, there would be a net shift of eleven electoral votes in favor of the Republican ticket compared with the current Electoral College. That would turn a 270–268 Democratic map into a 279–259 Republican map. The House of Representatives would see a similar shift toward red states and toward Sun Belt battlegrounds over Rust Belt battlegrounds.

One way Democrats could mitigate this potential electoral disaster is perhaps gravitating a bit more to the center on key issues. While they certainly haven't given any indication lately that they're capable of such a thing, data such as this might scare them straight. 

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