Buffalo Bills (-1-1/2) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Over the previous five seasons, Josh Allen and the Bills have won no fewer than 11 games per year and have seemingly been a Super Bowl contender each time ---- but have nary a Super Bowl appearance in that span. The good news for Buffalo this postseason is neither of the two teams (Kansas City and Cincinnati) who have stonewalled them those five years are in this year's tournament. The bad news? They must face a resurgent quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, whose play this season was on par with the two QBs (Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow) who have been a thorn in the Bills' postseason side.
The Jags enter the playoffs as one of the NFL's hottest teams as they finished the year with eight consecutive wins. And despite the fact head coach Liam Coen comes off as extremely goofy, he's guided the Jaguars offense to their highest scoring season since 2017, a year which saw them reach the AFC Championship Game.
While the Bills sport the NFL's top ranked pass defense in terms of yards allowed, their run defense has been gashed all season, allowing 5.1 yards per carry. While I think Lawrence will still get his, look for a heavy dose of RB Trevor Etienne, who finished 11th in the NFL with 1,107 yards. While Buffalo's James Cook led the NFL in rush yards with 1,621, the Jaguars were the best run defense in the league. If Buffalo is to prevail, Allen once again needs to be the magic.
Jacksonville 24 Buffalo 21
San Francisco 49ers (+5-1/2) at Philadelphia Eagles: I don't know how, but the 49ers won 12 games this season despite WR Brandon Aiyuk being unavailable all season, QB Brock Purdy and WR Ricky Pearsall missing eight games, TE George Kittle being out for six, and stalwart defenders Nick Bosa and Fred Warner each suffering season-ending injuries. Ironically, the offense was held together by the oft injured RB Christian McCaffrey, who played in all 17 games and compiled more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage (1,202 rushing, 924 receiving and 17 total touchdowns). Expect McCaffrey to be saddled with his normally heavy workload this game.
The Eagles are a hard team to figure out. While they've looked uneven offensively all year (especially RB Saquon Barkley taking a significant downturn from a 2,000+ yard rushing season in 2024), their defense really stepped up the final five games of the regular season, allowing an average of only 235 total yards. And while QB Jalen Hurts has been underwhelming most of the year, he always seems to find an extra gear in the postseason.
I don't really have a good feel for this game, so I'll just go with the home team.
Philadelphia 20 San Francisco 17
Los Angeles Chargers (+3-1/2) at New England Patriots: Despite being drafted #6 overall in 2020 and putting up some really good passing numbers, Chargers QB Justin Herbert is likely feeling significant pressure this postseason. In Herbert's first five years, the Chargers have been to the playoffs only twice, going one-and-done on both occasions. The fact San Diego L.A. is even in the postseason is no small feat given starting offensive linemen Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are both on Injured Reserve. Their absence has been felt (literally) by Herbert as he was sacked 54 times in sixteen games.
After a near two-decade dynasty, the Patriots made only one playoff appearance in the subsequent five seasons after Tom Brady departed.
If we are to enact a re-do of the 2024 draft, QB Drake Maye, whom the Pats selected #3 overall behind quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, may have to be taken first. Maye has had an MVP caliber 2025 season and has guided New England to a 14-3 record after a 1-2 start. He led the NFL in completion percentage, quarterback rating and QBR. He also finished fourth overall in pass yards and third in TD passes.
Despite stellar quarterback play from both teams in 2025, I see this as a grind 'em out type game given both defenses are in the top 10 in terms of yardage and points allowed.
New England 22 Los Angeles 20
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