Los Angeles Rams (-10) at Carolina Panthers: This is a rematch of a Week 13 game when a middling Carolina team upset a 9-2 Rams squad, 31-28. Going into that game, the Rams were on the short list of Super Bowl favorites. However, they stumbled down the stretch, going 3-3 in their final six contests.
The Panthers had everything go right in that regular season matchup as they won the turnover battle 3-0 and went 3 for 3 on fourth down conversions, yet still needed a late TD to prevail. Even though they are the home team here, Carolina finished the season 8-9 with a minus-69 point differential. Regardless, don't expect them to catch the Rams by surprise this time. Add to that the NFL's #1 offense in terms of points and yardage getting back veteran WR Davante Adams, this could mean a long day for the Panthers.
I like what Carolina is doing and their future certainly isn't as hopeless as it appeared two years ago, but the Rams are built for "win now" mode.
Los Angeles 28 Carolina 17
Green Bay Packers (-1-1/2) at Chicago Bears: This is the 213th all-time matchup in what is easily pro football's most prolific rivalry. However, this is only the third meeting of these historic franchises in the postseason. The teams split their two regular season contests with the home team prevailing in each. Both games went right down to the wire, so expect this game to have at least a similar vibe now that we're in the postseason.
The Packers were riding high in Week 15 at Denver, where they were sporting a 9-3-1 record and leading the Broncos in the second half of that game. However, Green Bay's fortunes turned late in the third quarter when stud pass rusher Micah Parson suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Broncos would rally for the victory, which was the first of four consecutive losses the Pack would suffer to end the season.
The 2025 Chicago Bears are certainly not your daddy's Bears (or grandfather's. or great-grandfather's) given they're sporting a top 10 offense in terms of total yards but rank near the bottom in total defense. However, the Bears led the NFL with 33 takeaways, which certainly covered the ills of a sieve-like D.
To me, this is the key takeaway: the Bears were 9-0 in the regular season when they forced at least 2 turnovers, but only 2-6 when they didn't. Meanwhile, the Packers' offense gave away the ball only 13 times all year, which was third fewest in the NFL. But the Bears' O was actually the best with only 11 giveaways.
Much to my chagrin as a Vikings fan, I believe the Bears got it right with head coach Ben Johnson and QB Caleb Williams. The franchise hasn't had this kind of stability in those two key areas since the 1980s. And while the Bears are certainly set up for the long haul, I maintain Green Bay is a slightly better team this year. It's hard for me to envision the Pack making a long playoff run without Parsons, but they'll have enough to emerge victorious this game.
Green Bay 26 Chicago 23
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