I can't begin to tell you how ecstatic I am that this election cycle is
finally coming to a close. Which means we get about a two month reprieve until we start hearing rumblings about the 2028 presidential race. Ugh!
In the meantime, here's how I see this cycle shaking out.
Minnesota Governor: It's been a while since I've been excited to cast a vote for a GOP gubernatorial candidate, but that's how I felt about voting for Lisa Demuth. The fact she was chosen leader of the Republican caucus in the MN House after being in the Legislature a short time spoke volumes of what her colleagues thought of her. And by all accounts she's been a terrific face and voice for the party.
Unfortunately, she's going up against arguably one of the 3-4 most popular politicians in Minnesota history in Amy Klobuchar. While Klobee isn't nearly as popular as her first couple of Senate terms, she still has high favorables and thus was elevated as the Dem candidate due to current Gov. Tim Walz turning out to be an utter buffoon.
Minnesotans deserve a fresh perspective in the Governor's mansion but, sadly, we won't get it. Klobuchar prevails by about 7-10 points.
U.S. Senate race in MN: Like the gov race, MN Republicans have been blessed with a terrific candidate in Michele Tafoya. Her fundraising prowess combined with her stellar speaking ability (as befits a longtime sports broadcaster) makes her the most formidable Republican Senate candidate Minnesota has had in recent memory. And the fact she drew the vacuous Peggy Flanagan as opposed to Angie Craig in this race means it is in play.
Alas, I just don't trust enough Minnesotans to do the right thing. Again, I'm desperately hoping I'm wrong here, but I say Peg ekes out a 2-3 point win.
MN Attorney General: If I was given the choice to have just one statewide race go Republicans' way, it would be tough to choose between Gov and AG. Current Atty General Keith Ellison is one of the most hackish and corrupt elected officials this state has had in as long as I can remember. He barely won his two elections to this office, both against woefully underfunded challengers with low name recognition. GOP candidate Ron Schutz may also not be that well known, but the fact a two-term incumbent AG needs to be propped up with national money tells ya that Schutz is over the target. And while Ellison has tried to hijack credit for the Feds' work in convicting fraudsters, it would appear Minnesotans know better.
Call this wishful thinking, but I say Ellison is finally sent packing due to Schutz claiming a narrow victory.
MN Auditor: This is one race where name recognition actually benefits Republicans. While Scott Jensen fell short in the 2022 gubernatorial race, his taking a swing in a different statewide race has benefited him. And he has been consistently leading DFL challenger Zack FIlipovich in polls I've seen. Do I dare predict that the MNGOP prevails in multiple statewide races? Why, yes. Yes, I do. Jensen by about 3-5.
MN Secretary of State: Incumbent Steve Simon is seeking a third term, being opposed by Republican Tad Jude this cycle. Jude's
political ad released a couple of weeks ago went viral, and thus has garnered his candidacy some welcome attention. That combined with the fact he's one of few former office holders that doesn't have a lot of baggage makes him a solid candidate. Will all that be enough? Unfortunately, offices in which people pay little attention to often go the way of the incumbent in an election. Simon by about four.
MN House: The House is currently deadlocked at 67-67. There are definitely some vulnerable DFL seats this cycle, specifically those decided by less than 1% in 2024:
- HD 14B - St Cloud area
- HD 48B - Carver County
- HD 54A - Shakopee
The good news is all three GOP challengers from 2024 have once again emerged as candidates this cycle. I've hosted all three on my radio show during this campaign and all have indicated that the rampant fraud in Minnesota is foremost on the minds of voters in their respective districts.
There's also a district in the Blaine area (32B) which incumbent DFLer Matt Norris won two years ago by just under two points. He's getting a very serious challenge from Leslie Larson, who has run an incredibly aggressive campaign. She's been out on the trail literally almost
every day since September 2025!
There was
a story in the Strib recently which indicated that a good number of independent Minnesotans, who have typically voted DFL in these suburban districts, are absolutely on board with the GOP this cycle. If Republicans can hang on to all 67 seats they currently occupy, they need to prevail in only one of the four aforementioned House seats to attain an outright majority.
I say the GOP emerges with a slim majority, winning anywhere from 68 to 70 seats.
MN Senate: With the DFL having had a 1-seat majority (34-33) for the past four legislative sessions, each piece of radical legislation passed during the trifecta sessions can be put at the feet of all 34 DFLers. As such, vulnerable Dem incumbents Grant Hauschild, Rob Kupec, Aric Putnam and Judy Seeberger are getting serious challengers from their GOP opponents. The two with the best chances to flip are SDs 3 (Hauschild) and 41 (Seeberger), as both are rematches of 2022 races. That year, Republicans Andrea Zupancich and Tom Dippel lost their respective races by less than 2% each. The one I've harped on most for 4 years is Seeberger, who defeated Dippel by 321 votes. Think about it. We got that entire buffet of lunacy in 2023-24 due to 0.009% of registered voters deciding to vote for Seeberger over Dippel. And Hauschild could very well have an even tougher reelection battle given he supported a ban on "assault weapons" despite representing a heavily pro-gun district.
On the flip side, incumbent GOP Senators Karin Housley (SD 33) and Jim Abeler (SD 35) barely survived in 2022, and are facing tough reelection prospects this cycle. Again, if Republicans are to seize control of either legislative chamber, they have to hold serve.
I'm going to cling to the hope that enough independents will swing to the GOP due to the fraud issue. I say the GOP takes the Senate as well with 34-35 members.
US House delegation from MN: Incumbent Republicans in Congressional Districts 1, 6, 7 and 8 will be reelected, though don't be shocked if CD1 Rep. Brad Finstad has to sweat a bit.
Incumbent Dems in CDs 3, 4 and 5 will easily win reelection.
With Rep. Angie Craig not seeking reelection in CD2, it's an open race between DFLer (and former State Senator) Matt Little and GOP State Sen. Eric Pratt. This has been a swing district ever since Republican John Kline retired, but Craig won her fourth term two years ago by double digits. Even though Dems don't have the power of incumbency in this particular race, the Generic Congressional Ballot favors Democrats. As such, Little will (unfortunately) squeak by with a win.
US House of Representatives: The Democrats will win control of the House (need 218 for a majority). The only question is how many seats will they gain. My best estimate is Dems will get anywhere from 235-240 seats.
US Senate: Going into this election, Republicans have a 53-47 majority. Right off the bat, I see them losing Ohio (special election for JD Vance's seat, currently occupied by Jon Husted) and North Carolina (Thom Tillis not seeking reelection, clearing the way for popular former Gov. Roy Cooper).
One realistic chance for a GOP flip this cycle was in Georgia against Dem incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff. But since the dysfunctional GA GOP decided to
prop up Mike Collins as their nominee, they basically punted on that opportunity.
It's one thing for Republicans to have to play defense in swing states during a potential blue wave year. But to also have to use resources in reliably red states like Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa and South Carolina means less for potential flips of open seats in Michigan and Minnesota. However, Michigan is still considered a "toss up" race. If indeed the GOP can win there, an outright majority in the Senate is still a possibility.
The way I see it, the best Republicans can hope for is a 50-50 tie, which would technically give them a majority with VP Vance being a tie breaking vote.
Just remember that regardless of what happens this evening, take heart that God is in control. He truly will never leave us nor forsake us.
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