Buffalo Bills (+1-1/2) at Denver Broncos: The Bills have a terrible run defense but the #1 ranked unit in defending the pass. This would be great news for the Broncos if they had a quarterback who could average well more than 6.4 yards per pass attempt and had starting RB J.K. Dobbins available. But since Denver's QB is Bo Nix and Dobbins is on injured reserve, the offense is likely to struggle. However, the Broncos can play some defense too, as they were third best in the NFL in terms of points allowed and second in total yardage.
At the end of the day, the Bills have the ultimate trump card: quarterback Josh Allen. And since he and his Bills squad don't have the Kansas City Chiefs hurdle to get over, they seem to have a clear path to the AFC title game.
Buffalo 24 Denver 21
San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Seattle Seahawks: These division rivals split their regular season matchups with the road team prevailing in both. One of those games took place in the season's final week with the NFC's top seed on the line. Seattle prevailed in that game with a defensive performance that reminded us of the days of the Legion of Boom.
I noted last week that somehow the Niners keep winning despite being ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. And in their wildcard victory over the defending Super Bowl Philadelphia Eagles last week, San Francisco suffered yet another devastating blow with perennial Pro Bowl TE George Kittle tearing his Achilles tendon. Not sure how they overcome that.
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold was a surprise entry on this week's injury report, being listed as "questionable" with an oblique injury. Good thing for Darnold and the 'Hawks, they have a solid running game, one which gashed the Niners defense for 180 yards (4.6 yards per carry) in that Week 18 game. Also, Seattle's defense, one which held San Francisco under 200 total yards just two weeks ago, is remarkably healthy at this point in the season. And that'll be the difference.
Seattle 21 San Francisco 10
Houston Texans (+3) at New England Patriots: About a week-and-a-half ago, I appeared on the The Purple Daily podcast segment "Write That Down" where the three hosts and a guest predictor each put forth three football related predictions. One of mine was how the AFC representative in Super Bowl 60 will be a team who's making their first ever appearance in the big game in their franchise's history. Given that only the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans fit that criteria, that narrowed it down quite a bit. But since the Jags were one and done this postseason, that means I'm now riding the Texans all the way to Santa Clara.
It also doesn't hurt that Houston's defense looks similar to that 2000 Baltimore Ravens squad that won it all.
Houston 17 New England 10
Los Angeles Rams (-4-1/2) at Chicago Bears: The Rams barely survived their wildcard matchup last week, edging the Carolina Panthers 34-31. What's worse is they now have to travel to Chicago where Sunday evening's weather will see temps in the single digits with wind chills well below zero. And if that doesn't make it hard enough for the Rams high octane pass offense, QB Matthew Stafford is nursing a sprained index finger on his throwing hand. But coach Sean McVay has relied heavily on three Tight End sets this year, so expect that to continue this game. Also, the Bears had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL during the regular season, which bodes well for RBs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, both of whom averaged around five yards per carry.
In watching the 2025 Bears, they reminded me of my Vikings squad of 2022. That is, a terrific regular season with a lot of their wins decided in the fourth quarter or overtime. However, the Bears, unlike the '22 Vikes, have actually won a playoff game after last week's (you guessed it) 4th quarter comeback win over the Green Bay Packers.
I've been saying for weeks now that the Bears' luck is going to run out eventually. But with QB Caleb Williams seemingly meeting the expectations heaped upon him when drafted #1 overall, what they've built this season feels sustainable. Alas, I believe they'll fall short this game.
Los Angeles 20 Chicago 17
Against the spread: 2-4
Straight up: 3-3
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