We've seen this movie before

In 2014, Minnesota Republicans nominated Jeff Johnson to oppose vulnerable incumbent Gov. Mark Dayton in an election cycle favorable to the GOP nationwide. And while Republicans did indeed fare well across the country, Minnesota was once again immune to that success with Johnson losing by about 5.5%. So it made no sense to run Johnson again in 2018 when the environment was unfavorable to Republicans nationwide, given it was the first midterm during the administration of an unpopular GOP President in Donald Trump. Sure enough, Johnson was soundly defeated by first time DFL gubernatorial candidate Tim Walz, who prevailed by more than 11 points. 

In 2022, the MNGOP nominated Dr. Scott Jensen to oppose vulnerable incumbent Gov. Walz in an election cycle that was once favorable to the GOP but later impacted by the July 2022 SCOTUS decision overturning Roe v. Wade. And while Republicans took back the majority in the U.S. House, Minnesota was once again immune to any GOP success with Jensen losing by about 7.5%. Of all the statewide races in Minnesota that year (i.e. Governor, Atty General, Sec. of State and Auditor), Jensen garnered the least amount of votes. Given all that (in addition to 2026 likely being a difficult year for Republicans due to it being the second midterm in Trump's presidency), Jensen would most assuredly recognize it's a fool's errand to run for MN governor again, right? Right?? RIGHT?!?!?!?

Today, Dr. Scott Jensen officially announced his candidacy for Governor of Minnesota, pledging to restore the values, safety, and opportunity that once made Minnesota a national model for prosperity and fairness.

“Minnesotans want their state back,” said Jensen. “We remember the days when our communities were safe, our schools were strong, and our leaders put people—not politics—first. That’s the Minnesota we’re going to fight to bring back.”

As I write this, Kendall Qualls is the only other big name vying for the GOP nomination for MN governor. And despite the fact Jensen was well funded in his 2022 gubernatorial run and had built up a solid national profile, Qualls proved very formidable at the endorsing convention that year. Ultimately Jensen was endorsed but it was clear we hadn't heard the last of Qualls. That's not to say that Qualls has some magic elixir to overcome a bad environment for Republicans this next cycle, but I would submit to you that a Jensen candidacy in '26 would be D.O.A. Which means there's a nonzero chance MNGOP delegates will once again give him the nod. 

I guess we're going to do that same thing over and over again, yet expect a different result. 

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