Hanging by a thread

Republican candidates for U.S. House won 220 seats on Election Day 4-1/2 months ago. Given 218 is required for a majority, the GOP was working with a razor thin edge going into this session of Congress. But with the resignations of GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL-01) and Michael Waltz (FL-06), both of whom were tapped by Donald Trump for positions in his second presidential administration, the GOP was down to 218 members. Further complicating the Republicans' standing was when Elise Stefanik (NY-21) was Trump's choice to be the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. However, her confirmation had been delayed so as to allow Republicans to stay right at 218 members.

Given that Gaetz (who was nominated for Attorney General but then withdrew due to being a sleazebag) and Waltz (now Trump's National Security Advisor) won their respective races by 30+ points in what have been traditionally safe GOP districts, conventional wisdom says Republicans should be back up to 220 after Tuesday's special elections in both Congressional Districts. But if we've learned anything about specials in the era of Trump, Democrats have been far superior at turning out their side. 

With all that in mind, I can't help but think that's why Stefanik will remain in Congress. 

The Trump administration is withdrawing its nomination of Representative Elise Stefanik (R., N.Y.) to serve as the next Ambassador to the United Nations to help protect the slim Republican majority in the House.

“With a very tight Majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat. The people love Elise and, with her, we have nothing to worry about come Election Day. There are others that can do a good job at the United Nations. Therefore, Elise will stay in Congress, rejoin the House Leadership Team, and continue to fight for our amazing American People,” President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social.

This ensures the Republicans will keep a majority, regardless of what happens on Tuesday in the Florida contests. But if the unthinkable happens and the GOP drops both races, that puts Trump's agenda in grave danger given Thomas Massie (R-KY) isn't afraid to go rogue. And since the opposite party of POTUS typically gains seats in the House in the midterm elections, it's a safe bet Dems will regain a majority in 2026 despite the fact they're completely nuts right now. 

Long story, short - there's a nonzero chance that Trump's entire second term (from a legislative standpoint) could be a lame duck session. 

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