House of cards

On August 17, the Minnesota Twins reached their high water mark of the 2024 MLB season when they moved to 17 games over .500 (70-53) with a win over the Texas Rangers. They were firmly ensconced in the playoff picture, sitting as the second team for the three wildcard spots in the American League. But there was still a solid chance they could catapult to the top of the A.L. Central as they were a mere two games behind the first place Cleveland Guardians. 

While things looked promising on the surface, it felt as though the season could go off the proverbial rails at any point. If we were to rank the Twins' top 5 players in terms of guys they could ill afford to be without for an extended period, shortstop Carlos Correa, starting pitcher Joe Ryan and center fielder Byron Buxton would be in that mix. Yet as of that August 17 date, all three were on the injured list with no definite timetable for a return. 

As we fast forwarded to Thursday evening, we have witnessed over the past 30 games one of the more stunning falls from grace I have seen in the near half century I've been a Twins fan. In thirty games since that mid-August peak the Twins have gone 10-20, sliding from a comfortable playoff position to now being tied for the third and final wildcard spot with the Detroit Tigers. How has this happened? Well, when 60% of your starting rotation is comprised of rookies which results in relying heavily on an already overworked bullpen, you have hurlers running on fumes or low leverage pitchers being put in high pressure situations. Add to that a suddenly feeble offense due to being without arguably its two most productive hitters, it's as if someone turned on a ceiling fan near a house of cards. While Correa and Buxton finally returned to the everyday lineup this past week, they're at best 60% of what they can normally bring to the table. 

So am I saying that the Twins will miss the postseason due to this freefall? I'll admit that I'm not overly optimistic of them surviving, but there is a realistic path forward. Of the nine games remaining (3 at Boston, 3 at home vs. Miami and 3 at home vs. Baltimore), the Twins can realistically go 7-2. That would put them at 87-75 for the season, which means Detroit has to finish 8-1 over its final nine games in order to usurp the Twins. 

Let's break it down by series:

• Even though the Red Sox are only four games out of the wildcard with 9 to play, they'd have to leapfrog three teams to get there. That seems insurmountable. Also, the Sox are a mediocre 35-40 at home, so the Twins taking two of three in their series starting Friday evening is certainly feasible.
• After a much needed off day on Monday, the Twins on Tuesday will begin a three-game series at Target Field against a Miami Marlins team that will likely exceed 100 losses this season. While a series sweep is easier said than done, it should be the expectation here. 
• Finally, the Twins wrap up their season against a very good Baltimore Orioles club. The Twins, dating back to July 2023, have lost seven consecutive games to the O's. However, by the time the final regular season series of the year kicks off a week from now, the New York Yankees may well have clinched the A.L. East division since they host Baltimore for three games just prior to the O's-Twins matchup. If indeed the Yanks deliver the knockout blow, the Orioles likely will have the top wildcard spot clinched, thus meaning they'd be inclined to rest a lot of their regulars in that final series. As such, the Twins taking 2 of 3 against Baltimore is a distinct possibility, especially since Minnesota's top two starting pitchers in Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober are slated to pitch that weekend. 

So if the Tigers, who have been playing out of their minds the past 5+ weeks (25-10 over their past 35 games), do indeed finish the season 8-1 or even 9-0, you just gotta tip your cap to 'em for stepping up and taking that final playoff spot. However, the Twins' front office brass will still have a lot to answer for this offseason if the club completes this epic collapse. 

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