Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Tipping point in Minnesota?

I've been thinking a lot lately about the political landscape in Minnesota, specifically if we've expedited the process of becoming a "Cold California." Sure the Dems hold all the statewide offices (Federal and State) in Minnesota as well as a majority in both chambers of the Legislature. However, it's not as forgone as Cali.....yet. For instance, the California Legislature currently has Dems with a whopping 62-18 advantage in the State Assembly and a 32-8 majority in the Senate. Contrast that to Minnesota where the DFL holds scant majorities in the House (70-64) and Senate (34-33). And while California Dems have a death grip on the U.S. House seats (40-12) within their state, here in Minnesota it's an even 4-4 split. 

Despite that, the first month of the Minnesota Legislative session indicates that DFLers are legislating as if they have majorities similar to that of California. Whether it's legalizing abortion on demand, mandating that all carbon based energy sources are gone by 2040 or putting forth draconian "gun control" proposals, Minnesota Dems are thinking one of two things: 

a) The political landscape is such that they believe they'll have a permanent majority. 

or 

b) Their legislative majority is fleeting, so get while the getting's good.


My hope is the Independents/moderate Dems/RINOs in Minnesota realize that what the DFL is currently enacting now is far more extreme than what they anticipated when casting their votes for Democrats in 2022. I mean, these voters were told ad nauseum that the GOP was the super duper scary "EXTREME!!!!" party, only now to see MN Dems refuse to cut taxes (including taxes on Social Security benefits, one of a minority of states to levy such a tax) despite an enormous budget surplus. Any viable Republican candidate going forward should be able to craft a solid message on the Dems' clear overreaching. Problem is, we seem to have a dearth of candidates we can consider "viable."

I honestly don't know if the GOP will ever be a relevant party in Minnesota again. If indeed the Dems get their wish to make it legal for illegal aliens to obtain driver's licenses as well as restore voting rights for felons who have been released from jail but yet to complete their probation, a permanent prog majority is not far fetched. Combine that with the fact the Republican Party of Minnesota is in perpetual disarray, it's difficult to be optimistic over not only ever winning a statewide race again but also attaining at least one chamber of the Legislature. 

All that being said, the 2024 election season will be a key cycle. The GOP absolutely has to take back the majority in the MN House. If they don't, it really is difficult to envision recovering from what would turn into four consecutive years of all DFL control. It didn't have to be this way. It shouldn't be this way.

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2 comments:

jerrye92002 said...

I think "GOP disarray" is a good statement of the problem. Do you have ANY ideas to how it might be resolved?

Brad Carlson said...

Do you have ANY ideas to how it might be resolved?

From a state party standpoint, less time on bureaucratic & administrative b.s. and more time on actual voter outreach. How many gatherings does one need to attend in order to merely participate in the grassroots process?

Also, the intraparty squabbles need to cease. Too many people prefer to be "kings of nothing" as opposed to coalescing behind a chosen candidate to help them win in a general election. How that gets resolved I have no idea.