New England Patriots (-4-1/2) at Denver Broncos: Boy, ya gotta feel for those Pats fans, huh. Their club was in the wilderness for a whole five seasons after a near two-decade dynastic run, but they're back in the AFC Championship Game. And the Patriots are likely in this for the long haul with a terrific coach and QB combo of Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye, both of whom could well be highly decorated (i.e. Coach of the Year and MVP, respectively) when the 2025 season awards are doled out.
The Broncos and their fans were barely an hour into their celebration of being one step away from a Super Bowl when they received the shocking news that starting quarterback Bo Nix would be out for the remainder of the postseason due to breaking a bone in his right ankle. As such, Jarrett Stidham (a 2019 Patriots draft pick) will be making his first start in two years. Stidham is literally only the second QB in NFL history to make his first start of the season in a conference championship game. The other was Roger Staubach, whose Dallas Cowboys fell to the Washington Redskins 26-3 in the 1972 NFC title game.
I felt the Broncos were playing with house money even before the Nix injury given the highest salary on their roster is for a guy who was cut after the 2023 season (QB Russell Wilson). But thanks to coach Sean Payton's tutelage, Nix had become a solid QB in only his second season and will likely only get better. So if anyone can elevate the play of a backup quarterback like Stidham for a two game stretch, it's Payton.
In the end, this will be a defensive struggle given both defenses are in the top 5 in terms of points allowed. New England definitely lucked out with Nix being unable to play, but I'd still be surprised if they win easily.
New England 20 Denver 19
Los Angeles Rams (+2-1/2) at Seattle Seahawks: These NFC West rivals split their two meetings in the regular season with the home team prevailing by less than a field goal in each contest.
Around Thanksgiving time, I got the impression that the Rams were the most complete team in the NFL. However, they definitely showed some cracks in their final six games, going 3-3. One of those losses was blowing a 16-point fourth quarter lead in Seattle, eventually losing 38-37 in overtime.
As of right now, the Seahawks have the healthiest, most talented roster among the remaining four clubs. I could certainly do a deeper dive into some of the numbers but I'll once again refer to my prediction on the Purple Daily podcast a little more than two weeks ago. That is, former Vikings QB Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks will be playing in Super Bowl 60.
Seattle 24 Los Angeles 17
Against the spread: 4-6
Straight up: 5-5
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