Pleading (for a change in) the Fifth

Democrat Congresswoman Ilhan Omar is in the midst of her third term representing Minnesota's Fifth Congressional District. In the previous two election cycles, she has received serious primary challenges from other Dems (Antone Melton-Meaux in 2020, Don Samuels in 2022). While she defeated her 2020 primary challenger by 18 points, she barely survived Samuels in '22, winning by just 2.1%. That specific race should definitely set off some alarm bells for Team Omar given she was a two-term incumbent who needed to outspend her opponent by a 2.5-1 margin just eke out a 2-point win.

Since CD5 runs at about D+25, the district's DFL primary is essentially the general election. As such, AIPAC is focusing on finishing the job once and for all. 

The bipartisan pro-Israel group has been actively courting a slate of House candidates to oppose marquee members of the “Squad,” including Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN), according to multiple sources familiar with AIPAC’s outreach who spoke with Jewish Insider on Tuesday.

The recruitment efforts have come amid a surprise shake-up at a leading progressive group, Justice Democrats, which laid off nearly half of its staff last month. The embattled group has claimed a few major victories over pro-Israel Democrats in previous primaries, but has otherwise struggled to raise money after an expensive election cycle in which several progressive candidates were defeated by establishment Democrats.

While AIPAC quietly opposed Omar last cycle by contributing $350,000 to a separate group created to boost a top Democratic primary challenger, its latest efforts point to a new and potentially more expansive direction for the group, whose affiliated super PAC, launched in late 2021, has largely engaged in open-seat races rather than challenging incumbents.

Now, however, AIPAC appears to be embracing a more aggressive strategy as it seeks to pick off a handful of incumbents who have been unusually hostile to Israel, particularly in recent weeks. Last month, for instance, Bowman and Omar were among a group of House Democrats who boycotted Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s address to a joint session of Congress. The two lawmakers also voted against a GOP-led resolution rejecting claims that Israel is a racist state — as Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, recently asserted at a progressive conference in Chicago.

Anyone who can defeat Omar in a DFL primary isn't going to be dramatically different from an ideological standpoint. However, since the largest portion of Minnesota's Jewish population resides in CD5, the citizens will feel as though they have representation who isn't openly hostile towards their worldview. Another reason Omar is potentially more vulnerable is there won't be any meaningful GOP primaries on the CD5 ballot, so those who typically vote Republican can cross over and vote in the Dem contest. 

Something to keep an eye on!

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