Wow. Just....wow

 

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The Chronicles of NARN: Election 2024

Mitch Berg, Jack Tomczak and I will be broadcasting live from MN GOP Headquarters in Bloomington this evening, starting at 8:00 Central Time. 

We'll pore over incoming results as well as give our perspective on what's at stake.  

You can listen live in the Twin Cities at AM 1280 or, if you're near downtown Minneapolis/West Metro area, 107.5 FM on your radio dial. In and out of the Minneapolis-St Paul area you can listen to the program on the Internet by clicking this link, or check us out via iheart radio as well as Amazon Alexa (just say "Alexa, play The Patriot Minneapolis"). If you're unable to tune in live, please check out my podcast page for the latest show post.

And if you're so inclined, follow along on Twitter at #NARNShow or "Like" our Facebook page.

Until then.....

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Election 2024: Prediction time

Based on little more than gut instinct, here's how I see this cycle shaking out.

MN House: The DFL holds a 70-64 majority, meaning the Republicans need a net gain of four seats. I've talked to about two dozen GOP candidates this cycle and a significant number of them told me that voters are most concerned about economic issues, which overwhelmingly favors Republicans this cycle. 

If I could have only one of two outcomes of Donald Trump being elected President or the GOP taking the majority in the MN House, I wouldn't hesitate in going with the latter. 

Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but I say Republicans take back the House with a 5-8 seat gain. 

MN Senate: While the entire Senate is not up for election, there is one DFL-held seat (Senate District 45) that is in play. Incumbent Sen. Kelly Morrison (DFL-Deephaven) resigned her seat to run for Congress in Minnesota CD3. 

GOP candidate Kathleen Fowke is putting in the work necessary to flip this seat and thus ensure at least one legislative chamber be a backstop against a far left agenda. And if this was an off-year "special election," the race might be more of a wildcard. Unfortunately, normal election turnout signals that a solid DFL seat remains in that column. 

I'm ripe for a surprise, but I believe that DFL candidate Ann Johnson Stewart emerges with close to a double digit victory. 

U.S. House delegation from Minnesota: Republican incumbents Brad Finstad, Tom Emmer, Michelle Fischbach and Pete Stauber will win their reelection bids in Minnesota's First, Sixth, Seventh and Eighth Congressional Districts, respectively. 

Dem incumbents Betty McCollum (CD4) and Ilhan Omar (CD5) will also prevail. 

With Democrat incumbent Dean Phillips not seeking reelection in CD3, Dem candidate Kelly Morrison will likely defeat Republican challenger Tad Jude in what has become (unfortunately) a solid blue district. 

The only "toss up" among the 8 Congressional Districts is the Second, where Democrat Congresswoman Angie Craig is receiving a serious challenge from GOP candidate Joe Teirab. Rep. Craig has won three elections in CD2, but none by more than 5.5%. While she's played up the "moderate Dem" label throughout her career, Craig was more than willing to accept assistance on her campaign from local candidates who are down with "defunding the police." Rather curious given she was endorsed by the MN Police and Peace Officers Association. You know that the DNC is worried about this seat when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came to town to help out. Not really sure how a radical leftist like Jeffries is supposed to be an asset to self proclaimed moderate like Craig, but whatever. 

Of all the candidates Craig has faced, Teirab has appeared to be the most organized and well funded challenger, even more so that Jason Lewis. I don't know what more he could've done to seize this race. 

With all that said, I see Craig surviving, albeit barely. Call it a 2-3% margin of victory. 

U.S. Senate race in MN: Three-term incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar has never garnered less than 58% of the vote in a U.S. Senate race nor has she ever won by less than 20%. Both streaks might be in jeopardy here against Republican Royce White, but she will still win comfortably.

U.S. House: Right now the Republicans hold a razor thin majority at 220-212 (3 seats are currently vacant). The GOP has 201 seats considered "Leans GOP" or better. If they capture all those plus the 17 Republican seats considered "toss ups," that puts them right at 218, the minimum needed for a majority. 

Based on nothing but guesswork, I say Republicans wind up with 220-225 seats to maintain a slim majority. 

U.S. Senate: The only prediction I'm confident in is the Republicans will take control of the Senate. With Dems clinging to a 51-49 majority, Republicans need to flip two Dem held seats. Right out of the gate, the GOP should easily take West Virginia (Gov. Jim Justice will prevail, taking over for retiring Dem Joe Manchin) and Montana (Jon Tester will be denied a fourth term by Tim Sheehy). 

Given there are no Republican held seats in legitimate danger of flipping, this would be a great opportunity to run up the score. Other vulnerable incumbent Democrats include Tammy Baldwin (WI), Bob Casey, Jr. (PA) and Sherrod Brown (OH). With Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) not seeking reelection, Michigan is also in play for Republicans. Of those states, it would seem Ohio is the best opportunity to flip given Donald Trump will win that state comfortably. As such, GOP candidate Bernie Moreno will be the beneficiary of Trump's coattails. 

Within the past week, Arizona's open Senate seat has suddenly moved to the toss-up category as the state's citizens are finding out Democrat Ruben Gallego is a leftist in the motif of "The Squad." Unfortunately, GOP candidate Kari Lake alienated a lot of Republican voters with her disdain towards the late Sen. John McCain who, whatever you think of him, was borderline revered by many Arizonans. I guess it's no wonder Independents comprise the largest voting bloc in the state given the best the GOP could do for this race was nominate a failed 2022 gubernatorial candidate. 

By all rights, Nevada Republican Sam Brown should be doing much better in his race against Sen. Jacky Rosen. While it's technically a "toss up," I don't recall him being any closer than 4 points. 

In the end, I believe Republicans will wind up with a minimum of 52 seats, with a realistic potential to reach 55.

President of the United States: If Donald Trump wins all the states he won in 2020, that gives him a baseline of 235 Electoral Votes. From there, I believe he has the easier path to 270. Of course, I said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton had the more realistic path to victory, so.....

In addition to the 235 EVs securely in the Trump column, I believe he wins Georgia (16 EVs) and Arizona (11) to put him at 262. If he gets there, then he only needs to win one of the three "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris needs all three to prevail, which is absolutely not beyond the realm of possibility. 

With Trump at 262, I say he'll also take Nevada as well as the one electoral vote in Nebraska which he lost in '20 but won in '16 (Nebraska allocates their EVs by Congressional District). 

If that's all Trump gets, here's what the map looks like: 

 

Yep. I'm chickening out by not predicting an outright winner. 

I am honestly prepared for every scenario with the exception of a Harris blowout. And given we've been living in "unprecedented times" for what seems like a decade now, I actually wanna see the 12th Amendment put into play here. 

As always......happy voting. 

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The NARN Closer's playlist - 11/3/2024

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Don't use your gender to drive a stake right through my soul.....

Two. More. Days. 

It feels as though we've been talking about the 2024 election cycle for two solid years, so we're about ready to "land the plane." Yes, I'll be on the air live today for the usual broadcast of my radio show The Closer. The 2-hour blitz gets started at 1:00 PM Central Time. 

In the first hour, I'll talk with two different Republican candidates for MN House. At 1:00, Sue Ek will join us via phone to tout her candidacy in House District 14B (northern St. Cloud). Then at 1:15, Rep. Elliott Engen will be on to discuss his reelection bid HD 36A (Lino Lakes, Centerville, Circle Pines, North Oaks, northern White Bear Township). 

In the 2:00 hour, I will come to bury the mainstream media, not to praise it. 

So please call (651) 289-4488 if you'd like to weigh in on any of the topics we plan on addressing.

 

You can listen live in the Twin Cities at AM 1280 or, if you're near downtown Minneapolis/West Metro area, 107.5 FM on your radio dial. In and out of the Minneapolis-St Paul area you can listen to the program on the Internet by clicking this link, or check us out via iheart radio as well as Amazon Alexa (just say "Alexa, play The Patriot Minneapolis"). If you're unable to tune in live, please check out my podcast page for the latest show post.

And if you're so inclined, follow along on Twitter at #NARNShow or "Like" our Facebook page, where we also conduct a "Live Stream" of the broadcast.

Until then.....

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They *still* think you're stupid

Given the media wasn't able to effectively cover for President Joe Biden referring to Donald Trump supporters as "garbage," they have to fabricate a story to ensure Trump is seen as the blood-thirsty fascist they claim him to be. 

WATCH: Donald Trump suggests @Liz_Cheney should be fired upon

It's an escalation of his violent rhetoric

My open of today's @CNNThisMorning

Cheney just responded to Trump -- shown below https://t.co/85RJ5VGZG3 pic.twitter.com/oxV0taVsEk

— Kasie Hunt (@kasie) November 1, 2024

Prog journos like this Hunt gal know full well this is a complete mischaracterization, but it's a necessary evil to perpetuate the narrative. 

If there's one area where Trump has been consistent over the years, it's his disdain for sending American soldiers into war (heck, he was a civilian in 2008 when he said George W. Bush should've been impeached for "getting us into the (Iraq) war with lies."). So anyone with half a brain can surmise that Trump was saying it's easy to vote on sending Americans to combat zones when the people authorizing such actions never have theirs or their kids' lives ever being in danger. We can debate whether that's a logical argument, but it's what he's conveying nonetheless. And how convenient that the clip was cut before Trump's statement regarding his assertion that Cheney "always wanted to go to war with people." But that would have provided actual clarity, so we can't have that. 

It's not exactly a new development that the mainstream media is utterly corrupt, and this quote from an "anonymous TV exec" shows the continued lack of introspection. 

Anonymous TV exec: "If half the country has decided that Trump is qualified to be president, that means they're not reading any of this media, and we’ve lost this audience completely. A Trump victory means mainstream media is dead in its current form." https://t.co/zWiIqKYx1b

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) October 30, 2024

Making this quote public may only fortify Trump's chances of victory next week. One could argue it's an in-kind contribution.

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They think you're stupid

For at least four decades now, the vast majority of American media members have clearly chosen a political side. So it should come as zero surprise that they're attempting to clean up (instead of, y'know, reporting facts) after the latest faux pas from the walking cadaver in the White House. 

President Biden tonight, on Zoom with Latinos, denounced attacks on Puerto Rico

In somewhat rambling remarks, Biden said the “only garbage” he saw was intolerance of Trump supporters who believed that

A WH spox said POTUS was talking about hatred of comedian who made the joke

— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) October 30, 2024

This was in response to comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's remarks at Trump's Madison Square Garden rally this past Sunday. 

 

Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe responds to backlash after calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”

“These people have no sense of humor. Wild that a vice presidential candidate would take time out of his “busy schedule” to analyze a joke taken out of context to make it… pic.twitter.com/s0CTOInDkQ

— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) October 27, 2024

First off, Hinchcliffe is a professional roaster, so that context is important. Also, this wasn't aimed so much at Puerto Ricans as it was the actual island which has been overrun by mounting trash. While I'm not certain it's the wisest course of action to have an edgy comedian speak at a presidential rally nine days before an election, Hinchcliffe's remarks are hardly commentary on specific policy. 

With all that in mind, I'll let you be the judge on if Biden was referring to a comedian's intolerance or Trump supporters themselves. 

WATCH: President Joe Biden: "The only garbage I see floating out there is [Trump] supporters." pic.twitter.com/9teSUOytqC

— Steve Guest (@SteveGuest) October 30, 2024

Look, it's possible a feeble 82-year old man was attempting to convey that the only garbage he saw was "intolerance" but it came across badly since he no longer possesses the capacity to make coherent remarks. But if that's the case here, then that opens up a whole new can of worms. Specifically, how this confirms the media and White House comms team were gaslighting the American public when spinning yarns of Biden running circles around staff young enough to be his grandchildren. Either way, the only explanations for Biden's comments are 1) incoherent ramblings of a mentally degraded ol' fella or 2) a sitting POTUS calling half the country "garbage."

Conservative commentator Erick Erickson noticed something in another laughable attempt at cleaning up aisle 46.

 

After the fact, the White House went into damage control and released a transcript where they added an apostrophe to “supporters,” turning it into “supporter’s,” but it makes no sense in context. Because here is the full context:

 

So it was a single supporter’s garbage or “his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable?”

I realize we are at the point where progressives think a single person can be a “they,” but now a single supporter has garbage? No, the only way this makes any sense at all is without the apostrophe that someone added after the fact for damage control, i.e., (1) “the only garbage I see is his supporters” and (2) “his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable and un-American.”

It boggles the mind to think Biden believes otherwise, considering his whole party already believes anyone who attends a Trump rally is a Nazi. Again, you can hear Joe Biden in your own words talk about Trump’s supporters as garbage and then pivoting to talk about Trump himself.

The media (specifically the WaPo) are willing to parse prog remarks in the motif of Bill Clinton's "it depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is," yet willfully ignore full context of Trump referring to a Biden election as a proverbial bloodbath for the American automobile industry, instead suggesting Trump meant literal blood being spilled if he loses. 

That the media is so unwilling to engage in even a scintilla of introspection as to why trust in their profession has degraded is a far greater threat to democracy than Trump himself. 

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Box Score of the Week (Final one of 2024)

It's World Series time!

In honor of the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees meeting for the 12th time in the Fall Classic, let's go back to 1947 for Game 1 of the then Brooklyn Dodgers taking on the Yanks. 

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With the Dodgers' Jackie Robinson having broke baseball's color barrier earlier that year, this was the first ever integrated World Series. Also, it was the first Fall Classic to appear on broadcast television, albeit limited to a handful of markets in the New York state area. 

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The NARN Closer's playlist - 10/27/2024

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Now we'll try to stay blind to the hope and fear outside.....

Welp....we're down to single digit number of days until Election Day, so we're looking to finish strong the next couple of weekends. My 2-hour radio show The Closer gets started at 1:00 PM Central Time today. 

It's certainly no secret that we need to flip the Minnesota House of Representatives to a GOP majority, so that means more Republican House candidates today. 

1:30 - Doug Willetts, House District 52B (northeastern Eagan, Mendota Heights).

2:00 - Angeline Anderson, HD 56B (Rosemount, southeastern Eagan, southeastern Apple Valley). 

2:30 - John Bristol, HD 37B (eastern Maple Grove). 

Also, I'll weigh in on the latest in the presidential race. 

So please call (651) 289-4488 if you'd like to weigh in on any of the topics we plan on addressing.

 

You can listen live in the Twin Cities at AM 1280 or, if you're near downtown Minneapolis/West Metro area, 107.5 FM on your radio dial. In and out of the Minneapolis-St Paul area you can listen to the program on the Internet by clicking this link, or check us out via iheart radio as well as Amazon Alexa (just say "Alexa, play The Patriot Minneapolis"). If you're unable to tune in live, please check out my podcast page for the latest show post.

And if you're so inclined, follow along on Twitter at #NARNShow or "Like" our Facebook page, where we also conduct a "Live Stream" of the broadcast.

Until then.....

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