Houston Texans (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs: I wasn't shocked that Houston defeated the L.A. Chargers last week, but I was taken aback how dominant they were after the first quarter. Their defense, which looked leaky much of the second half of the season, really stepped up in that game. And despite a drop off from his 2023 Rookie of the Year campaign, QB C.J. Stroud seemed to have his mojo back. However, Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has designed some of the best postseason game plans in the 21st century. As such, Stroud & Co. may well be in for a long day.
Through 16 games of the 2024 season, the Chiefs were 15-1, yet appeared to be the most boring 15-1 team in NFL history. They also seemed to be going through the motions in the '23 campaign, but were able to flip that switch when playoff time arrived. They even had to go on the road for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, yet were able to win tough games in Buffalo and Baltimore to get to the Super Bowl. After repeating as champs last year, KC is going for the first ever "three-peat" in the Super Bowl era. In his first six years as Chiefs' starting QB, Mahomes has never been ousted prior to the AFC Championship game. At minimum, that trend will hold this year.
Kansas City 24 Houston 13
Washington Redskins Football Team Commanders (+9-1/2) at Detroit Lions: I'm hard pressed to recall a rookie quarterback as unflappable as Washington's Jayden Daniels. In his first ever playoff game in Tampa last week, he was as accurate and poised as he'd been all season in leading his club to a victory over the Buccaneers. If there was an opportunity for a "do over" in the 2024 draft, is there any question Daniels would be the top pick? I know the Commanders are going into a tough environment at Detroit's Ford Field, but they will definitely move the ball effectively against a depleted Lions defense. The question is can the Commies defense get any stops against the Lions dynamic offense?
The Lions were still kinda playing with house money last year, and got within a whisker of the Super Bowl. But as the NFC's top seed, anything short of the ultimate game will be a disappointment. The matchup to watch here is Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs going up against a defense which ranked 30th in the NFL in stopping the run. And if that's not bad enough for the Commanders, RB David Montgomery was just activated off the I.R. list. I believe QB Jared Goff will get his, but it would behoove the Lions to keep Daniels and Co. off the field, so just keep pounding the ball.
I have a feeling Washington will hang tough and be right in it at the end, but the Lions just have too much firepower on offense.
Detroit 38 Washington 31
Los Angeles Rams (+6-1/2) at Philadelphia Eagles: Even though these teams played each other back in Week 12, it feels like Philly RB Saquon Barkley is still ripping off 10-yard runs against the Rams. Barkley led the NFL this season with 2,005 yards rushing, including a career high 255 in that 37-20 win in L.A. And that Eagles defense is downright stifling having allowed the second fewest points this season and the fewest yards.
Not much more to say about this one other than we may be witnessing the final game in the stellar career of Rams QB Matthew Stafford.
Philadelphia 31 Los Angeles 17
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills: In Week 4, the Ravens crushed the Bills 35-10, which was easily Buffalo's worst game of 2024. The Ravens also wore down the Bills defense to the tune of 271 yards rushing. And given there's a decent chance of snow in upstate New York on Sunday, why not continue to pound Derrick Henry & Co.?
Of course, the story of this game is the quarterbacks as Baltimore's Lamar Jackson and Buffalo's Josh Allen are the top two contenders for NFL MVP. Allen will definitely get his against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and Jackson will do his Lamar thing with the dual threat of pass and run. As the 1-point spread indicates, this game is pretty much a toss up.
Baltimore 27 Buffalo 24
My 2024 postseason record:
Against the spread: 2-4
Straight up: 3-3
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