As we're two weeks out from Election Day, I continue to be fixated on the Minnesota House races. Bottom line is if the Republicans don't seize control of that chamber (they need a net gain of 4 seats this election), it'll be another two years of unshackled DFL power from which my beloved state may never recover.
I expressed a variation of this take recently on the radio show when a friend of mine texted me during the broadcast. He reminded me the MN Senate is technically up for grabs. Indeed, while the entire Senate is not up this cycle, there is a special election taking place in Senate District 45. Given that this is a DFL held seat and the Dems hold a mere 34-33 majority in the Senate, the Republicans would gain control of that chamber if GOP candidate Kathleen Fowke prevails.
When I thought more about the dynamics of the 2024 MN legislative races, I couldn't help but recall the 2016 cycle and how it nearly parallels this year.
In 2016, incumbent DFL Senator Terri Bonoff (Minnetonka area) did not seek reelection in order to run as the Democrat in Minnesota's Third Congressional District. This year, incumbent Sen. Kelly Morrison (Minnetonka area) resigned her position in the aforementioned SD 45 in order to run as the Democrat in Minnesota's Third Congressional District.
In 2016, Republican candidate Paul Anderson prevailed in Bonoff's district by a mere 195 votes (a 0.39% margin of victory), giving the GOP a net gain of six seats in the Senate to give them a....you guessed it.....34-33 majority. It will definitely be a significant upset if Fowke emerges victorious in what is basically the same district Anderson won in '16. But the similarities to what happened 8 years ago will be undeniable if that occurs.
Here's hoping!
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