Wednesday, September 06, 2023

Doesn't pass the smell test

I don't doubt that Donald Trump is the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination. But what I'm having a difficult time believing is polling numbers showing him leading by 30+ points over the nearest Republican hopeful in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. I know the Trump cultists are buying it hook, line and sinker, but those who normally vote Republican find such a whopping margin rather implausible. 

Like in 2016, Trump polls the worst of all Republican hopefuls in a head-to-head matchup with the Democrat candidate. However, a perfect storm catapulted him to victory then. But, similar to 2020, he will have no such fortune next year. If Republican voters actually pause and think through this rationally, Trump absolutely can not be the nominee next year if there is even a smidgen of interest in saving our republic. 

Erick Erickson conveyed his thoughts on this dynamic. 

I know too many Republicans who won’t vote for Trump in 2024 under any circumstance. In fact, I dare say there are more of those than there are Trump voters who are only Trump.

If the GOP moves past Trump, it makes every win easier. If the GOP does not, gravity weighs the party down further. I just must wonder if the party, particularly its fifty and older crowd that claims to care so much about their grandchildren’s future, is as invested in Trump as they tell pollsters.

Both parties — after all, we cannot ignore how much voters disdain Biden as well — seem intent on putting their worst foot forward, insisting that everyone will like it or else.

But is that really true? Are the polls measuring support reflective in ballots or just in passions that won’t translate to ballots?

We are in a political realignment, and every voter, myself included, will be forced to feel uncomfortable with portions of their party and its candidates. But I still struggle with the idea that the two men a majority of Americans say are not fit to lead the nation will be their parties’ nominees. Something just feels off about the dynamics and polling right now. Or maybe we are all in a national suicide pact and have chosen the bullet.


Erick also laid out a harsh reality that could serve to undermine whomever the GOP nominee may be. 


 



Oh we've seen this movie before, haven't we? Yeah, specifically in January 2021 when Trump sowed such distrust in the two U.S. Senate races out of Georgia that it cost the Republicans the Senate majority. All of the destructive fiscal policies that were ramrodded through in the first two years of Joe Biden's presidency could've been stopped had the GOP maintained just one of those two seats. In a way, Trump only served to make D.C. swampier. 


If somehow Trump is denied the GOP nomination next year, you'll see a similar scorched earth strategy from him, resulting in the party sliding down a hill to a permanent minority. This further underscores my belief that Trump isn't the least but interested in "making America great" if he isn't the one receiving sole credit. 


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3 comments:

  1. I don't care how you slice it or accomplish it, but we must have a GOP President. As the race stands now, it will be Trump vs. Biden and, considering the Biden "achievements" it should be a slam-dunk GOP win, regardless of the GOP nominee. But, I am very concerned as to how the GOP manages to reconcile the Never-Trump and Only-Trump factions of the Party? I read today that there are more people who did NOT vote than voted for Biden in the last election, and most of them (2:1) favor Trump. Seems to me that's the way to go. To quote Hugh Hewitt, "If it ain't close, they can't cheat."

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  2. I don't care how you slice it or accomplish it, but we must have a GOP President.

    The best way to accomplish that is with a candidate *not* named Trump. Sorry, but that's the reality. A Republican can't win the presidency without Arizona and Georgia, two states where Trumpism is radioactive.

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  3. I don't believe any Republican can win without the 60% of the GOP that is currently "Trump only." Unlikely to even get the nomination. Our best hope, IMHO, is for Trump to pivot to an issues campaign and for the other candidates to admit, even promote, Trump policies. It's a hope, not a likelihood. But your approach risks President Harris.

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