- The only mystery remaining over next week's Election Day results for the U.S. House is by how big a margin Republicans will win control of that body.
Jim Geraghty of National Review shares some very harrowing numbers for Democrats.
Campaign expenditures are a useful indicator, because a national party committee or like-minded super PAC isn’t going to spend $275,000 unless it feels like it really needs to do so. When Democrats and allied groups are spending six-figure sums in late October in districts where the incumbent Democrat usually wins by 20 points, that is a sign of a giant wave coming.
This doesn’t mean that Republicans will necessarily win those Biden-by-20-point districts; GOP candidates may well fall short in all of them. But if the national political environment is so bad for Democratic incumbents that Republicans have a shot in D+20 districts, then the GOP is in position to pull upsets in D+10 districts, and it should win a whole lot of D+5 and sweep the even districts.
The GOP also got an assist in their quest to seize control of the U.S. Senate.
The Libertarian candidate in Arizona's Senate race has dropped out and endorsed his Republican opponent. Libertarian Senate candidate Marc Victor, who was polling at 1% in a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday, dropped out of the race Tuesday, throwing his weight behind Republican nominee Blake Masters. Masters is facing Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly in the midterm election.
"I've said from the very beginning that the reason I'm running for Senate is to promote and get us in the direction of freedom and peace and civility," Victor said in a YouTube video announcing his endorsement.
If this seat flips, it clinches the majority for Republicans given that Adam Laxalt is all but certain to defeat incumbent Dem Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada. As such, this would give the GOP a margin for error if Democrat John Fetterman flips the Republican held seat in Pennsylvania.
I'm going to hold off on my official predictions until Election Day, but I'm betting there will be at least one other GOP flip that hasn't been on many people's radar until literally this week.
- I haven't spent a lot of energy on the horrific incident involving Paul Pelosi, husband of U.S. House Speaker Nance Pelosi. This story, like a lot of other high profile sagas where a person is violently attacked or even killed, had so many things being reported that it was hard to follow what was factual and what was pure conjecture.
That said, this is one perspective I'd like to think we should all agree upon:
"Some on the right say that promoting baseless speculation is just fighting fire with fire, that we need to play this game too. Nothing could play more completely into the hands of the far left," writes @BlueBoxDave https://t.co/sDhpmC3JPa
— The Spectator World (@TheSpectator) November 1, 2022
Well that, and our sincerest hopes that Mr. Pelosi makes a full recovery and that the loon who attacked him never sees the light of day again.
- How much are statewide Minnesota Dem candidates worried about losing an election for the first time since 2006? They're appealing to everyday, workaday folks in the entertainment industry.
Always fighting for the working people and the little guy in Minnesota. We need @keithellison. Please be sure to vote for him this election and bring a friend or some family. Double, triple, or quadruple the fun. 🥳 https://t.co/asRnrG5sAR
— Mark Ruffalo (@MarkRuffalo) November 1, 2022
What is it about Ellison and coddling up to 9/11 truthers for endorsements? Last week it was Jesse Ventura. Now it's the vapid Ruffalo.
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