As is tradition in this space, I'm going to attempt to predict the outcome of Tuesday's festivities.
Minnesota Governor: I've made no secret of the fact that our personal friend Michelle Benson was mine and Mrs. Carlson's preferred candidate for the GOP nomination in this race. Alas, Dr. Scott Jensen got the nod. While I have had my beefs with Jensen's candidacy, there's no doubt he's putting forth the supreme effort it requires for a Republican to win statewide in Minnesota (which ---- stop me if you've heard this before --- hasn't happened since 2006).
While Jensen has trailed Gov. Tim Walz from the outset, there are some polls which show him with a slight lead.
Let's face it. Walz does not deserve reelection, but Dems in Minnesota have the benefit of endless financial resources to distort Republicans' stances on policy, thus swaying the non engaged voter. Will it be enough? I desperately wanna believe Jensen can pull this off, and he is indeed within striking distance.
I hope I'm wrong but I see Walz surviving with a 3-5 point win.
MN Secretary of State: I like GOP candidate Kim Crockett personally and believe she has some good ideas for this office, but she's made far too many unforced errors on the campaign trail. Incumbent Steve Simon wins comfortably.
MN Auditor: Incumbent Julie Blaha has received a serious challenge from her GOP opponent Ryan Wilson. Despite being the only Republican to vie for this office in 2022 (and a late entrant at that), Wilson has run a no-nonsense, substantive campaign which seems to have resonated with voters. Also, Wilson had effectively "pounced" on the lack of oversight in the Feeding our Future scandal.
Dare I go out on a limb and declare a statewide victory for a Minnesota Republican? Yes. Yes I do. Wilson by about 2.
MN Attorney General: I've said from the beginning that this office is the MNGOPs' best opportunity for a statewide win. Given incumbent AG Keith Ellison barely defeated a flawed Republican candidate in the Democrat wave year election of 2018, it was a given he'd have to fight harder for reelection (provided the GOP didn't put forth Doug Wardlow again). Thankfully, Jim Schultz is the noncontroversial, competent candidate we've long sought in races like this. Schultz has also benefited from significant law enforcement support, including nods from many county Sheriffs.
Within the past week or two, Schultz has surged ahead of Ellison in most polls. How bad is it for AG Ellison? On Monday, there were DFL volunteers out door knocking on his behalf in northeast Minneapolis!!!!
For the first time since 2002, the MNGOP will win multiple statewide races as Schultz emerges victorious by about 5 points.
MN House: The DFL holds a scant 70-64 majority, which means the GOP has to flip four seats to take control of that chamber. While the DFL has been taking over the suburban areas the last two cycles, Republicans have an opportunity to turn some of those districts red. Combine that with the GOP continuing their dominance outstate, I believe they'll get just enough flips to take a slight majority. Call it a net gain of 5.
MN Senate: The Senate currently sits at 34 GOP, 31 DFL and 2 Independents (Tom Bakk, who is not seeking reelection, and David Tomassoni, who passed away in August). Speaking of Bakk, he endorsed Republican Andrea Zupancich in the new SD3 (northwest MN), which is a huge boost. Also, Republican Rob Farnsworth has a legit chance to prevail in Tomassoni's former district (the new SD7, which is the Iron Range area).
With redistricting, one of the GOP's best prospects for a suburban pickup comes courtesy of my personal friend Karen Attia in the new SD34 (Champlin, western Brooklyn Park, southwest Coon Rapids, Dayton and Rogers) taking on incumbent Sen. John Hoffman. The public safety issue has also resonated in southwest suburban areas, making incumbent DFLer Lindsey Port vulnerable against Republican Pam Myhra in the new SD55 (Burnsville, Savage).
As far as vulnerable incumbent Republicans, Roger Chamberlain (Lino Lakes, Vadnais Heights, White Bear Lake) and Warren Limmer (Maple Grove) have had some serious money pouring into their respective districts in an effort to oust them.
If I had to guess, I say the GOP hangs on to the majority with, at best, a 37-30 advantage and at worst 34-33.
US House delegation from Minnesota: Republican held seats in MN Congressional Districts 1, 6, 7 and 8 will remain in GOP hands.
Democrat held seats in CDs 3, 4 and 5 will remain Democrat.
The only seat in question is CD2 where incumbent Dem Angie Craig is receiving a serious challenge from Tyler Kistner in a rematch of 2020. In the '20 race, Craig prevailed by just over 2 points. In one of the most evenly split districts in the country (Cook Political Report labels it D+1), I say Kistner rides the red wave to a narrow victory.
U.S. House of Representatives: Right now, the Dems have 220 seats to 212 for the Republicans, with three seats being vacant (2 Dems, 1 GOP).
The Republicans are going to win a majority (need to get to at least 218), the only question is by how much. I don't anticipate a bloodbath like 1994 where the GOP gained 54 seats or 2010 when they flipped a whopping 63. I'm predicting an estimate of 25-30 pickups for Republicans, which will give them 238-243 members.
U.S. Senate: Just two months ago I was just hoping the GOP could keep the Senate at its current status of 50-50. However, the tide has definitely turned for Republicans as all but one GOP-held seat look to be safe.
The only GOP held seat that is particularly vulnerable is Pennsylvania where Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz has consistently trailed Dem John Fetterman. If indeed Fetterman flips this to the Democrats, the GOP needs to flip two Dem held seats for a majority. It appears as though Adam Laxalt is in good shape to oust incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada.
So where can we find just one more Dem held seat to turn? Amazingly, Herschel Walker has overtaken Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia in the latest polling, though the race is still very tight. If no candidate gets to 50% +1 on election night, the race goes to a December 6 runoff between the top two vote getters, which will be Walker and Warnock. However, Walker is in decent position to win this race outright on Tuesday.
The next tier has Republicans Blake Masters (AZ) and Don Bolduc (NH) within striking distance of Sens. Mark Kelly and Maggie Hassan, respectively. The way momentum has surged towards the GOP in recent weeks, don't be shocked if both seats flip.
And finally, two seemingly long shot races are suddenly not completely out of reach as Sens. Patty Murray (WA) and Michael Bennet (CO) look to hold off their GOP challengers (Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea). If this truly is a wave election, the Republicans could well turn one of these seats.
In the end, I say Republicans win back a majority with a minimum 51 seats (net gain of 1) with 54 (net gain of 4) not out of the question.
Have a great Election Day and God bless America!!
---------------------------------------------
No comments:
Post a Comment