MN Senate: This MN legislative body is literally the only thing blocking Gov. Tim Walz and the DFL-controlled House from enacting a prog utopia of gun control, economy-crushing climate change initiatives, higher taxes, etc. As of last session, the GOP has a slight 35-32 edge. However, a good number of their races are having unconscionable amounts of "progressive" PAC money thrown at their Dem opponents.
Where the Republicans are most in jeopardy are SD26 (Carla Nelson of Rochester), SD33 (David Osmek of Mound), SD34 (Warren Limmer of Maple Grove), SD39 (Karin Housley of Stillwater), SD44 (Greg Pulles of Wayzata, who is running in place of the retiring Sen. Paul Anderson) and SD56 (Dan Hall of Burnsville). Unfortunately there are scant opportunities for GOP flips. I feel confident that Republican Zach Duckworth can oust DFL incumbent Matt Little in SD58 (Farmington, Lakeville). From there, who knows?
I'm not sure how much things have changed in Blaine since 2016, but GOP candidate Brad Sanford in SD37 might be able to win his rematch with Sen. Jerry Newton, who won in '16 by 3%. The only other possible (albeit remote) GOP flips are Jeff Jiang in SD48 (Eden Prairie), Mary Giuliani Stephens in SD53 (Woodbury, Oakdale) and Jose Jimenez in SD57 (Apple Valley, Rosemount).
Admittedly I'm going more with my heart on this, but I say the GOP suffers a net loss of one seat, thus holds a razor thin 34-33 majority.
MN House: The DFL, thanks to flipping 18 GOP seats in the 2018 midterms, have a healthy 75-59 majority in this body. I believe the Republicans flip some of those back, but they need to gain nine seats in order to seize control. I'm going with a net gain of about five seats for the GOP here.
MN Congressional District One: Despite a wave of anti-Trump sentiment in 2018, Republican Jim Hagedorn defeated Dan Feehan, albeit by a mere 0.76%. Higher turnout in a presidential election year likely means Hagedorn wins the rematch with Feehan by about a 2-3% margin.
MN Congressional District Two: Incumbent Dem Angie Craig is receiving a serious challenge from Republican Tyler Kistner. Having won by 5.5% in 2018 and there being no viable third party to siphon off votes like in 2016, Craig would appear to have a slight edge here. I say she wins by around 3%.
MN Congressional District Three: In his first reelection bid, Democrat Dean Phillips is in the right place at the right time with CD3 having completed its transformation from "purple" to lite blue. Republican Kendall Qualls is an impressive candidate and the Third would be blessed to have him represent them in D.C. Sadly I don't see it happening. Phillips by about 5-7%.
MN Congressinal District Four: If the shrill and unaccomplished Betty McCollum gets less than 70% here, the GOP should consider it a moral victory.
MN Congressional District Five: The best opportunity to oust incumbent Ilhan Omar was in the DFL primary over the summer. While Dem challenger Antone Melton-Meaux raised some serious campaign cash, his bid fell short.
GOP candidate Lacy Johnson is a heckuva guy and deserves consideration here, but the vast majority of constituents in CD5 will continue to check the DFL box in all races. Again, a moral victory here would be Omar garnering less than 70%.
MN Congressional District Six: Incumbent Rep. Tom Emmer (I'm proud he's my Congressman, by the way) wins by 30% or more.
MN Congressional District Seven: In one of the reddest CDs in the state (on par with CD6), the Seventh has been represented by Dem Collin Peterson for nearly 30 years now. As the district has tilted further right, Peterson has only won by single digits against underfunded GOP challengers each of the past three cycles. However, that ends this year as former MN state senator Michelle Fischbach retires Peterson with a 3-5% victory.
MN Congressional District Eight: As one travels north of the Twin Cities suburbs on the eastern side of Minnesota, it is overwhelmingly Trump country. With the exception of the Duluth area, this would appear to be a safe Republican seat for the foreseeable future. It won't be easy but I believe incumbent GOP Rep. Pete Stauber wins this time by about 2%.
US House: After a net gain of 40+ seats in 2018, the Democrats have 232 members to 197 for Republicans (there is also one Libertarian and five vacant seats). In order for the GOP to regain a majority (at least 218 seats), the Dems would have to suffer a net loss of 15 seats. That ain't happenin'. If anything, Democrats will have a modest 5-10 seat gain.
US Senate: Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority in the upper chamber. As for GOP flips, Tommy Tuberville looks as though he'll prevail over Dem Doug Jones in Alabama, who scored an upset in a 2017 special to fill Jeff Sessions' former seat.
The only other races where Republicans are in striking distance are in Michigan (John James) and Minnesota (Jason Lewis) (!). I'm going to go out on a limb and say the GOP gets one of those but not both.
Regarding Democrats pickups, it would appear Republican incumbents Susan Collins (ME), Cory Gardner (CO) and Martha McSally (AZ) will be ousted. Other vulnerable GOP Senators include Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Kelly Loeffler (GA - likely not decided until Jan. 5 runoff) and Joni Ernst (IA). I say Dems pick off two of those four.
In the end, I'll predict Democrats have a net gain of three U.S. Senate seats, which puts that chamber at ---- 50-50. That means whomever is elected Vice President will be the tie-breaking vote in the upper chamber. I mean, why shouldn't 2020 be the source of more chaos?
President of the United States: My first prediction in this category is we won't know the winner of this race by Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning.
In 2016, Donald Trump scored a huge upset over Hillary Clinton with a 306-232 edge in the Electoral College (304-227 after presidential electors cast their votes). I believe Trump's 2020 opponent, Joe Biden, wins all the states Mrs. Clinton won in '16, in addition to Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona.
If that occurs, the map would look like this:
Click the map to create your own at Happy voting (if you haven't cast your ballot already).
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