Political prediction

My state House representative, Jim Abeler, is currently one of a handful of Republicans vying for the nomination to oppose Al Franken this November in the U.S. Senate race. The last weekend in May is when GOP delegates will endorse a candidate. Since Abeler has (to be charitable) little chance to attain said endorsement, he will force a primary, something he's on the record as saying there's a 95% chance he'll do. But if he's committed to going to a primary (which will take place in August, I believe), that means he would officially not see re-election for his state house seat, a position he's held since 1999.

So here's my prediction:

Abeler has until June 3 to file for candidacy for his current position in House District 35A. Because of some of the latest developments regarding HD35A (specifically a candidate entering the GOP nomination battle with whom Abeler has clashed in recent history), Abeler will indeed drop out of the Senate race and file to re-run in HD35A by June 3, which will be a mere three days after getting trounced in the endorsement battle at state convention.

Again, this is merely a prediction based on nothing but my pure speculation. Take it for what you will.

---------------------------------------------------