Based on little more than gut instinct, here's how I see this cycle shaking out.
MN House: The DFL holds a 70-64 majority, meaning the Republicans need a net gain of four seats. I've talked to about two dozen GOP candidates this cycle and a significant number of them told me that voters are most concerned about economic issues, which overwhelmingly favors Republicans this cycle.
If I could have only one of two outcomes of Donald Trump being elected President or the GOP taking the majority in the MN House, I wouldn't hesitate in going with the latter.
Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but I say Republicans take back the House with a 5-8 seat gain.
MN Senate: While the entire Senate is not up for election, there is one DFL-held seat (Senate District 45) that is in play. Incumbent Sen. Kelly Morrison (DFL-Deephaven) resigned her seat to run for Congress in Minnesota CD3.
GOP candidate Kathleen Fowke is putting in the work necessary to flip this seat and thus ensure at least one legislative chamber be a backstop against a far left agenda. And if this was an off-year "special election," the race might be more of a wildcard. Unfortunately, normal election turnout signals that a solid DFL seat remains in that column.
I'm ripe for a surprise, but I believe that DFL candidate Ann Johnson Stewart emerges with close to a double digit victory.
U.S. House delegation from Minnesota: Republican incumbents Brad Finstad, Tom Emmer, Michelle Fischbach and Pete Stauber will win their reelection bids in Minnesota's First, Sixth, Seventh and Eighth Congressional Districts, respectively.
Dem incumbents Betty McCollum (CD4) and Ilhan Omar (CD5) will also prevail.
With Democrat incumbent Dean Phillips not seeking reelection in CD3, Dem candidate Kelly Morrison will likely defeat Republican challenger Tad Jude in what has become (unfortunately) a solid blue district.
The only "toss up" among the 8 Congressional Districts is the Second, where Democrat Congresswoman Angie Craig is receiving a serious challenge from GOP candidate Joe Teirab. Rep. Craig has won three elections in CD2, but none by more than 5.5%. While she's played up the "
moderate Dem" label throughout her career, Craig was more than willing to accept assistance on her campaign from local candidates who are down with "defunding the police." Rather curious given
she was endorsed by the MN Police and Peace Officers Association. You know that the DNC is worried about this seat when
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came to town to help out. Not really sure how a radical leftist like Jeffries is supposed to be an asset to self proclaimed moderate like Craig, but whatever.
Of all the candidates Craig has faced, Teirab has appeared to be the most organized and well funded challenger, even more so that Jason Lewis. I don't know what more he could've done to seize this race.
With all that said, I see Craig surviving, albeit barely. Call it a 2-3% margin of victory.
U.S. Senate race in MN: Three-term incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar has never garnered less than 58% of the vote in a U.S. Senate race nor has she ever won by less than 20%. Both streaks might be in jeopardy here against Republican Royce White, but she will still win comfortably.
U.S. House: Right now the Republicans hold a razor thin majority at 220-212 (3 seats are currently vacant). The GOP has 201 seats considered "Leans GOP" or better. If they capture all those plus the 17 Republican seats considered "toss ups," that puts them right at 218, the minimum needed for a majority.
Based on nothing but guesswork, I say Republicans wind up with 220-225 seats to maintain a slim majority.
U.S. Senate: The only prediction I'm confident in is the Republicans will take control of the Senate. With Dems clinging to a 51-49 majority, Republicans need to flip two Dem held seats. Right out of the gate, the GOP should easily take West Virginia (Gov. Jim Justice will prevail, taking over for retiring Dem Joe Manchin) and Montana (Jon Tester will be denied a fourth term by Tim Sheehy).
Given there are no Republican held seats in legitimate danger of flipping, this would be a great opportunity to run up the score. Other vulnerable incumbent Democrats include Tammy Baldwin (WI), Bob Casey, Jr. (PA) and Sherrod Brown (OH). With Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) not seeking reelection, Michigan is also in play for Republicans. Of those states, it would seem Ohio is the best opportunity to flip given Donald Trump will win that state comfortably. As such, GOP candidate Bernie Moreno will be the beneficiary of Trump's coattails.
Within the past week, Arizona's open Senate seat has suddenly moved to the toss-up category as the state's citizens are finding out Democrat Ruben Gallego is a leftist in the motif of "
The Squad." Unfortunately, GOP candidate Kari Lake alienated a lot of Republican voters with her disdain towards the late Sen. John McCain who, whatever you think of him, was borderline revered by many Arizonans. I guess it's no wonder Independents comprise the largest voting bloc in the state given the best the GOP could do for this race was nominate a failed 2022 gubernatorial candidate.
By all rights, Nevada Republican Sam Brown should be doing much better in his race against Sen. Jacky Rosen. While it's technically a "toss up," I don't recall him being any closer than 4 points.
In the end, I believe Republicans will wind up with a minimum of 52 seats, with a realistic potential to reach 55.
President of the United States: If Donald Trump wins all the states he won in 2020, that gives him a baseline of 235 Electoral Votes. From there, I believe he has the easier path to 270. Of course, I said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton had the more realistic path to victory, so.....
In addition to the 235 EVs securely in the Trump column, I believe he wins Georgia (16 EVs) and Arizona (11) to put him at 262. If he gets there, then he only needs to win one of the three "blue wall" states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Kamala Harris needs all three to prevail, which is absolutely not beyond the realm of possibility.
With Trump at 262, I say he'll also take Nevada as well as the one electoral vote in Nebraska which he lost in '20 but won in '16 (Nebraska allocates their EVs by Congressional District).
If that's all Trump gets, here's what the map looks like:
Yep. I'm chickening out by not predicting an outright winner.
I am honestly prepared for every scenario with the exception of a Harris blowout. And given we've been living in "unprecedented times" for what seems like a decade now, I actually wanna see the
12th Amendment put into play here.
As always......happy voting.
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